Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joel Alvarez won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, July 22, 2023·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Model Prediction: Marc Diakiese wins(50.2%)
Actual result: Joel Alvarez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joel Alvarez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Marc Diakiese has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Joel Alvarez has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Marc Diakiese
Red Corner
VS
Joel Alvarez
Blue Corner
+160
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-190
(66%)
33
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'3"
185.42 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Marc Diakiese
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Rafael Alves · Nov 21W
vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Mar 22W
vs Damir Hadzovic · Jul 22L
vs Michael Johnson · Dec 22W
vs Kaue Fernandes · Nov 23Joel AlvarezW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Thiago Moises · Nov 21L
KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Feb 22W
KOvs Elves Brener · Aug 24W
KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24W
vs Vicente Luque · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Marc DiakieseMetricJoel Alvarez
2.54
Strikes / min
4.53
2.64
Strikes absorbed / min
3.03
52%
Strike defense
53%
3.29
TDs / 15 min
0.18
66%
Takedown defense
46%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.10Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap+1.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Marc DiakieseJoel Alvarez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Marc Diakiese(10 fights)Joel Alvarez(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-17.117.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-280.0280.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Marc Diakiese
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights14
Joel Alvarez
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights10