Lightweight
3 Rounds
Rafael Alves won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, November 13, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Marc Diakiese wins(51.4%)
Actual result: Rafael Alves wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Alves enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Rafael Alves threatens submissions; Marc Diakiese has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Marc Diakiese has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Marc Diakiese has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Marc Diakiese
Red Corner
VS
Rafael Alves
Blue Corner
-250
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
33
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'8"
185.42 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Marc Diakiese
oldest →latest
W
vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Mar 22W
vs Damir Hadzovic · Jul 22L
vs Michael Johnson · Dec 22L
SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Jul 23W
vs Kaue Fernandes · Nov 23Rafael AlvesL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Damir Ismagulov · May 21L
KOvs Drew Dober · Jul 22L
vs Nurullo Aliev · Feb 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Marc DiakieseMetricRafael Alves
2.54
Strikes / min
1.85
2.64
Strikes absorbed / min
3.30
52%
Strike defense
58%
3.29
TDs / 15 min
0.29
66%
Takedown defense
44%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.10Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap-1.45
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Marc DiakieseRafael Alves
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Marc Diakiese(10 fights)Rafael Alves(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+40.9-40.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+308.0-308.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Marc Diakiese
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights14
Rafael Alves
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights4