Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Marcin Held enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Nasrat Haqparast has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Nasrat Haqparast has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Nasrat Haqparast (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Marcin HeldL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Diego Sanchez · Nov 16L
KOvs Damir Hadzovic · May 17 Nasrat Haqparast
oldest →W
vs Landon Quinones · Sep 23W
KOvs Jamie Mullarkey · Dec 23W
vs Jared Gordon · Jun 24W
vs Esteban Ribovics · Mar 25L
KOvs Quillan Salkilld · Oct 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Marcin HeldMetricNasrat Haqparast
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.61evenly matched on net striking+0.36
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Marcin HeldNasrat Haqparast
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Marcin Held(4 fights)Nasrat Haqparast(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -18.6|Blue +18.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -48.7|Blue +48.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Marcin HeldTargetNasrat Haqparast
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Marcin Held edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control2:20
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Nasrat Haqparast edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control2:43
Knockdowns0
10Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:23Control
1Knockdowns
Round 3Marcin Held edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control2:20
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:58Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
