Welterweight
3 Rounds
Tim Means won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 20, 2014·Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Tim Means wins(55.1%)
Actual result: Tim Means wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tim Means has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Marcio Alexandre Junior (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Marcio Alexandre Junior
Red Corner
VS
Tim Means
Blue Corner
+160
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-170
(63%)
37
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Marcio Alexandre JuniorL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Warlley Alves · May 14L
vs Court McGee · Dec 15Tim MeansL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Max Griffin · Oct 22L
SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23W
KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23L
KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24L
SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Marcio Alexandre JuniorMetricTim Means
1.61
Strikes / min
5.04
2.89
Strikes absorbed / min
3.65
42%
Strike defense
60%
0.35
TDs / 15 min
1.14
66%
Takedown defense
64%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.28Δ 2.67 — meaningful gap+1.39
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Marcio Alexandre JuniorTim Means
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Marcio Alexandre Junior(3 fights)Tim Means(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-18.518.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+56.0-56.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-3.03.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Marcio Alexandre Junior
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights3
Tim Means
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights29