Catch Weight
3 Rounds
Joe Soto won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, November 5, 2016·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico, Mexico
Model Prediction: Joe Soto wins(51.1%)
Actual result: Joe Soto wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joe Soto threatens submissions; Marco Beltran has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Joe Soto has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Marco Beltran has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Marco Beltran
Red Corner
VS
Joe Soto
Blue Corner
-135
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+115
(47%)
40
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'6"
175.26 cm
Reach
165.1 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Marco Beltran
oldest →latest
W
vs Marlon Vera · Nov 14W
vs Ning Guangyou · Nov 15W
SUBvs Reginaldo Vieira · Jul 16L
vs Matt Schnell · Oct 17Joe SotoL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Michinori Tanaka · Jan 16W
SUBvs Chris Beal · Jun 16W
vs Rani Yahya · Mar 17L
SUBvs Brett Johns · Dec 17L
KOvs Iuri Alcantara · Feb 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Marco BeltranMetricJoe Soto
2.07
Strikes / min
3.36
1.93
Strikes absorbed / min
5.37
63%
Strike defense
67%
0.70
TDs / 15 min
0.85
46%
Takedown defense
70%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.14Δ 2.15 — meaningful gap-2.01
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Marco BeltranJoe Soto
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Marco Beltran(5 fights)Joe Soto(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+73.9-73.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-19.019.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Marco Beltran
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights5
Joe Soto
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights8