Featherweight
3 Rounds
Kyle Nelson won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 21, 2019·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico, Mexico
Style matchupMarco Polo Reyes: Pressure fightervsKyle Nelson: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Marco Polo Reyes wins(56.4%)
Actual result: Kyle Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kyle Nelson has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Nelson (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Marco Polo Reyes
Red Corner
VS
Kyle Nelson
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
41
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'11"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Marco Polo Reyes
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Drew Dober · Jun 19Kyle Nelson
oldest →latest
W
vs Fernando Padilla · Sep 23W
KOvs Bill Algeo · Mar 24L
KOvs Steve Garcia · Sep 24W
vs Matt Frevola · Oct 25L
KOvs Terrance McKinney · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Marco Polo ReyesMetricKyle Nelson
6.00
Strikes / min
3.60
5.52
Strikes absorbed / min
4.58
59%
Strike defense
53%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.18
46%
Takedown defense
66%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.48Δ 1.46 — meaningful gap-0.98
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Marco Polo ReyesKyle Nelson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Marco Polo Reyes(2 fights)Kyle Nelson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+15.1-15.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-56.056.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Marco Polo Reyes
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights2
Kyle Nelson
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights11