Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Mario Bautista won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 11, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupMario Bautista: Pressure fightervsGuido Cannetti: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Mario Bautista wins(59.0%)
Actual result: Mario Bautista wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mario Bautista (54.1%).
Tale of the Tape
Mario Bautista
Red Corner
VS
Guido Cannetti
Blue Corner
-1200
(92%)
Vegas Odds
+750
(12%)
32
Age
46
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'6"
175.26 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mario Bautista
oldest →latest
W
vs Ricky Simon · Jan 24W
vs Jose Aldo · Oct 24W
vs Patchy Mix · Jun 25L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25W
SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26Guido CannettiW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Marlon Vera · Nov 18L
KOvs Danaa Batgerel · Mar 20L
vs Mana Martinez · Aug 21W
KOvs Kris Moutinho · Mar 22W
SUBvs Randy Costa · Oct 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mario BautistaMetricGuido Cannetti
5.30
Strikes / min
3.44
3.98
Strikes absorbed / min
2.84
54%
Strike defense
51%
1.91
TDs / 15 min
2.27
55%
Takedown defense
64%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.32evenly matched on net striking+0.60
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mario BautistaGuido Cannetti
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mario Bautista(10 fights)Guido Cannetti(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+58.9-58.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-35.035.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Mario Bautista
StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights14
Guido Cannetti
StanceSouthpaw
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights10