Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Mario Bautista won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 7, 2025·Newark, New Jersey, USA, USA
Style matchupMario Bautista: Pressure fightervsPatchy Mix: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Patchy Mix wins(51.7%)
Actual result: Mario Bautista wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mario Bautista has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Mario Bautista has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mario Bautista (54.1%).
Tale of the Tape
Mario Bautista
Red Corner
VS
Patchy Mix
Blue Corner
+146
(41%)
Vegas Odds
-174
(64%)
32
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'11"
175.26 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mario Bautista
oldest →latest
W
vs Da'Mon Blackshear · Aug 23W
vs Ricky Simon · Jan 24W
vs Jose Aldo · Oct 24L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25W
SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26Patchy Mix
oldest →latest
L
vs Jakub Wiklacz · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mario BautistaMetricPatchy Mix
5.30
Strikes / min
5.30
3.98
Strikes absorbed / min
7.30
54%
Strike defense
43%
1.91
TDs / 15 min
2.50
55%
Takedown defense
0%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.32Δ 3.32 — meaningful gap-2.00
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mario BautistaPatchy Mix
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mario Bautista(10 fights)Patchy Mix(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+109.9-109.9
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.649.6
Mario Bautista
StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights14
Patchy Mix
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights2