Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Trevin Jones won · KO/TKO
UFC Event·Saturday, March 6, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Mario Bautista wins(62.9%)
Actual result: Trevin Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Trevin Jones enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Mario Bautista has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mario Bautista (54.1%).
Tale of the Tape
Mario Bautista
Red Corner
VS
Trevin Jones
Blue Corner
-240
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
32
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'7"
175.26 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mario Bautista
oldest →latest
W
vs Ricky Simon · Jan 24W
vs Jose Aldo · Oct 24W
vs Patchy Mix · Jun 25L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25W
SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26Trevin JonesL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Timur Valiev · Aug 20L
SUBvs Saidyokub Kakhramonov · Aug 21L
vs Javid Basharat · Mar 22L
vs Raoni Barcelos · Oct 22L
vs Cody Garbrandt · Mar 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mario BautistaMetricTrevin Jones
5.30
Strikes / min
2.13
3.98
Strikes absorbed / min
4.29
54%
Strike defense
39%
1.91
TDs / 15 min
0.62
55%
Takedown defense
60%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.32Δ 3.48 — meaningful gap-2.16
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mario BautistaTrevin Jones
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mario Bautista(10 fights)Trevin Jones(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+2.2-2.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+196.0-196.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Mario Bautista
StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights14
Trevin Jones
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights6