Bantamweight
5 Rounds
Mario Bautista won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, February 7, 2026·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupMario Bautista: Pressure fightervsVinicius Oliveira: Elusive striker
The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.
Model Prediction: Mario Bautista wins(58.4%)
Actual result: Mario Bautista wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Vinicius Oliveira enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Vinicius Oliveira has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Mario Bautista
Red Corner
VS
Vinicius Oliveira
Blue Corner
-126
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+108
(48%)
32
Age
30
Switch
Stance
Switch
5'9"
Height
5'9"
175.26 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mario Bautista
oldest →latest
W
vs Da'Mon Blackshear · Aug 23W
vs Ricky Simon · Jan 24W
vs Jose Aldo · Oct 24W
vs Patchy Mix · Jun 25L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25Vinicius OliveiraW4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Benardo Sopaj · Mar 24W
vs Ricky Simon · Jun 24W
vs Said Nurmagomedov · Feb 25W
vs Kyler Phillips · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mario BautistaMetricVinicius Oliveira
5.30
Strikes / min
4.73
3.98
Strikes absorbed / min
2.70
54%
Strike defense
57%
1.91
TDs / 15 min
1.45
55%
Takedown defense
70%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.32evenly matched on net striking+2.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mario BautistaVinicius Oliveira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mario Bautista(10 fights)Vinicius Oliveira(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+34.8-34.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-98.098.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Mario Bautista
StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights14
Vinicius Oliveira
StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights5