Middleweight
3 Rounds
Aaron Simpson won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 26, 2011·Seattle, Washington, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Mario Miranda wins(61.0%)
Actual result: Aaron Simpson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mario Miranda is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Aaron Simpson has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Aaron Simpson has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Aaron Simpson has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Mario Miranda
Red Corner
VS
Aaron Simpson
Blue Corner
+175
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-210
(68%)
46
Age
51
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mario Miranda
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Gerald Harris · Mar 10W
KOvs David Loiseau · Jun 10L
vs Demian Maia · Aug 10Aaron Simpson
oldest →latest
W
vs Brad Tavares · Jul 11W
vs Eric Schafer · Oct 11L
vs Ronny Markes · Feb 12W
vs Kenny Robertson · Jul 12L
KOvs Mike Pierce · Oct 12Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mario MirandaMetricAaron Simpson
1.96
Strikes / min
3.60
2.46
Strikes absorbed / min
2.53
36%
Strike defense
56%
1.02
TDs / 15 min
3.78
54%
Takedown defense
83%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.50Δ 1.57 — meaningful gap+1.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mario MirandaAaron Simpson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mario Miranda(4 fights)Aaron Simpson(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+17.5-17.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+84.0-84.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Mario Miranda
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4
Aaron Simpson
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8