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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

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Elo1548

Elo1519

Mario PintovsRyan SpannUFC Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Saturday, September 5, 2026Paris, France

Fight begins in

Style matchupMario Pinto: WrestlervsRyan Spann: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

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Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mario Pinto enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Mario Pinto is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Ryan Spann has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Mario Pinto has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mario Pinto has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mario Pinto

Red Corner

Ryan Spann

Blue Corner

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Vegas Odds

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1548

Elo

1519

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'5"

200.66 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mario PintoW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Austen Lane · Mar 25

KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Oct 25

vs Felipe Franco · Mar 26

latest

Ryan SpannW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Apr 24

SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Oct 24

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Mar 25

SUBvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 25

KOvs Marcus Buchecha · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mario PintoMetricRyan Spann

2.85

Strikes / min

3.11

1.93

Strikes absorbed / min

3.92

58%

Strike defense

43%

2.38

TDs / 15 min

1.21

100%

Takedown defense

59%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.92Δ 1.73 — meaningful gap-0.81

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mario Pinto(3 fights)Ryan Spann(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +29.7|Blue -29.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Method Projection

Matchup projection based on both fighters' finish patterns and vulnerabilities. These three projected methods total 100%. Most likely: KO / TKO.

KO / TKO68%

Historical win share: Mario Pinto earned 67% of wins by KO/TKO.

Submission32%

Historical win share: Ryan Spann earned 40% of wins by submission.

Decision0%

Both fighters frequently end fights early.

Mario Pinto

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights3

Ryan Spann

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17