Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
Shana Dobson won · KO/TKO
UFC Event·Saturday, August 22, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Mariya Agapova wins(58.3%)
Actual result: Shana Dobson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mariya Agapova enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Shana Dobson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Mariya Agapova has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mariya Agapova (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Mariya Agapova
Red Corner
VS
Shana Dobson
Blue Corner
-1430
(93%)
Vegas Odds
+750
(12%)
29
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'6"
172.72 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mariya AgapovaL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Hannah Cifers · Jun 20W
SUBvs Sabina Mazo · Oct 21L
SUBvs Maryna Moroz · Mar 22L
SUBvs Gillian Robertson · Sep 22L
SUBvs Luana Santos · Jul 24Shana DobsonL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ariel Beck · Dec 17L
vs Lauren Mueller · Apr 18L
vs Sabina Mazo · Aug 19L
KOvs Priscila Cachoeira · Feb 20L
KOvs Casey O'Neill · Feb 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mariya AgapovaMetricShana Dobson
4.43
Strikes / min
3.34
3.62
Strikes absorbed / min
5.20
52%
Strike defense
50%
0.55
TDs / 15 min
0.84
45%
Takedown defense
14%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.81Δ 2.67 — meaningful gap-1.86
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mariya AgapovaShana Dobson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mariya Agapova(6 fights)Shana Dobson(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+49.9-49.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-112.0112.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.9-1.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Mariya Agapova
StanceSouthpaw
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights6
Shana Dobson
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights6