Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Justin Willis won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 1, 2018·Adelaide, South Australia, Australia, Australia
Model Prediction: Justin Willis wins(53.0%)
Actual result: Justin Willis wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mark Hunt has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Justin Willis (53.5%).
- Justin Willis has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Mark Hunt
Red Corner
VS
Justin Willis
Blue Corner
-110
(52%)
Vegas Odds
-110
(52%)
52
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
6'1"
182.88 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mark HuntL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Frank Mir · Mar 16L
KOvs Alistair Overeem · Mar 17W
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jun 17L
vs Curtis Blaydes · Feb 18L
SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Sep 18Justin Willis
oldest →latest
W
vs James Mulheron · Jul 17W
KOvs Allen Crowder · Dec 17W
vs Chase Sherman · Apr 18L
vs Curtis Blaydes · Mar 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mark HuntMetricJustin Willis
2.81
Strikes / min
3.37
2.90
Strikes absorbed / min
2.57
51%
Strike defense
57%
0.51
TDs / 15 min
0.96
64%
Takedown defense
36%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.09evenly matched on net striking+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mark HuntJustin Willis
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mark Hunt(10 fights)Justin Willis(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-22.222.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-147.0147.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.61.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Mark Hunt
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights16
Justin Willis
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights5