Middleweight
3 Rounds
Roan Carneiro won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, February 28, 2015·Los Angeles, California, USA, USA
Style matchupMark Munoz: WrestlervsRoan Carneiro: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Mark Munoz wins(60.0%)
Actual result: Roan Carneiro wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Roan Carneiro threatens submissions; Mark Munoz has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Roan Carneiro has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Roan Carneiro has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Mark Munoz
Red Corner
VS
Roan Carneiro
Blue Corner
-260
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+240
(29%)
48
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mark Munoz
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Chris Weidman · Jul 12W
vs Tim Boetsch · Jul 13L
KOvs Lyoto Machida · Oct 13L
SUBvs Gegard Mousasi · May 14W
vs Luke Barnatt · May 15Roan Carneiro
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Feb 16W
vs Kenny Robertson · Sep 16L
vs Ryan LaFlare · Feb 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mark MunozMetricRoan Carneiro
3.12
Strikes / min
1.46
2.26
Strikes absorbed / min
1.82
57%
Strike defense
62%
3.17
TDs / 15 min
3.05
57%
Takedown defense
83%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.86Δ 1.22 — meaningful gap-0.36
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mark MunozRoan Carneiro
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mark Munoz(10 fights)Roan Carneiro(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+27.5-27.5
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-48.048.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.749.7
Mark Munoz
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights12
Roan Carneiro
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4