Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Marlon Moraes won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, December 9, 2017·Fresno, California, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Aljamain Sterling wins(51.4%)
Actual result: Marlon Moraes wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Marlon Moraes enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Aljamain Sterling has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Marlon Moraes
Red Corner
VS
Aljamain Sterling
Blue Corner
-145
(59%)
Vegas Odds
+135
(43%)
38
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'7"
170.18 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Marlon MoraesL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jose Aldo · Dec 19L
KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 20L
KOvs Rob Font · Dec 20L
KOvs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 21L
KOvs Song Yadong · Mar 22Aljamain Sterling
oldest →latest
W
vs Henry Cejudo · May 23L
KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23W
vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24L
vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24W
vs Brian Ortega · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Marlon MoraesMetricAljamain Sterling
3.37
Strikes / min
4.26
4.53
Strikes absorbed / min
2.15
54%
Strike defense
59%
0.87
TDs / 15 min
2.54
46%
Takedown defense
44%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.16Δ 3.27 — meaningful gap+2.11
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Marlon MoraesAljamain Sterling
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Marlon Moraes(10 fights)Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-56.856.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-105.0105.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
Marlon Moraes
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights11
Aljamain Sterling
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights22