Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Marlon Moraes won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 14, 2019·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Jose Aldo wins(51.8%)
Actual result: Marlon Moraes wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Marlon Moraes enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Jose Aldo has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Marlon Moraes
Red Corner
VS
Jose Aldo
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+145
(41%)
38
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'7"
170.18 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Marlon MoraesL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Jun 19L
KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 20L
KOvs Rob Font · Dec 20L
KOvs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 21L
KOvs Song Yadong · Mar 22Jose AldoL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Rob Font · Dec 21L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 22W
vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24L
vs Mario Bautista · Oct 24L
vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Marlon MoraesMetricJose Aldo
3.37
Strikes / min
3.65
4.53
Strikes absorbed / min
3.81
54%
Strike defense
60%
0.87
TDs / 15 min
0.47
46%
Takedown defense
92%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.16evenly matched on net striking-0.16
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Marlon MoraesJose Aldo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Marlon Moraes(10 fights)Jose Aldo(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-43.243.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-28.028.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.71.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Marlon Moraes
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights11
Jose Aldo
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights23