Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Merab Dvalishvili won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, September 25, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Marlon Moraes wins(55.4%)
Actual result: Merab Dvalishvili wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Marlon Moraes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Merab Dvalishvili has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Marlon Moraes
Red Corner
VS
Merab Dvalishvili
Blue Corner
+245
(29%)
Vegas Odds
-310
(76%)
38
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'6"
170.18 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Marlon MoraesL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Jun 19W
vs Jose Aldo · Dec 19L
KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 20L
KOvs Rob Font · Dec 20L
KOvs Song Yadong · Mar 22Merab Dvalishvili
oldest →latest
W
vs Sean O'Malley · Sep 24W
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jan 25W
SUBvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 25W
vs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 25L
vs Petr Yan · Dec 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Marlon MoraesMetricMerab Dvalishvili
3.37
Strikes / min
4.42
4.53
Strikes absorbed / min
2.80
54%
Strike defense
54%
0.87
TDs / 15 min
5.97
46%
Takedown defense
76%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.16Δ 2.78 — meaningful gap+1.62
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Marlon MoraesMerab Dvalishvili
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Marlon Moraes(10 fights)Merab Dvalishvili(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-29.929.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+133.0-133.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.61.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
Marlon Moraes
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights11
Merab Dvalishvili
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights17