Lightweight
3 Rounds
MarQuel Mederos won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 29, 2025·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico, Mexico
Style matchupMarQuel Mederos: Pressure fightervsAustin Hubbard: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: MarQuel Mederos wins(74.0%)
Actual result: MarQuel Mederos wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Tale of the Tape
MarQuel Mederos
Red Corner
VS
Austin Hubbard
Blue Corner
-158
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+134
(43%)
29
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
175.26 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
MarQuel MederosW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Landon Quinones · Feb 24W
vs Mark Choinski · Jun 25Austin HubbardL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Vinc Pichel · Aug 21L
SUBvs Kurt Holobaugh · Aug 23W
vs Michal Figlak · Apr 24L
vs Alexander Hernandez · Oct 24L
vs Rongzhu · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
MarQuel MederosMetricAustin Hubbard
5.46
Strikes / min
3.97
4.58
Strikes absorbed / min
4.10
52%
Strike defense
55%
0.23
TDs / 15 min
1.63
82%
Takedown defense
68%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.88Δ 1.01 — meaningful gap-0.13
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
MarQuel MederosAustin Hubbard
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
MarQuel Mederos(3 fights)Austin Hubbard(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+46.7-46.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+245.0-245.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.3-1.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
MarQuel Mederos
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights3
Austin Hubbard
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights12