Lightweight
3 Rounds
MarQuel Mederos won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 7, 2025·Newark, New Jersey, USA, USA
Style matchupMarQuel Mederos: Pressure fightervsMark Choinski: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: MarQuel Mederos wins(53.6%)
Actual result: MarQuel Mederos wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- MarQuel Mederos has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- MarQuel Mederos has 82pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
MarQuel Mederos
Red Corner
VS
Mark Choinski
Blue Corner
-154
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
29
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'8"
175.26 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
MarQuel MederosW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Landon Quinones · Feb 24W
vs Austin Hubbard · Mar 25Mark ChoinskiNo prior UFC fights on record.
Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
MarQuel MederosMetricMark Choinski
5.46
Strikes / min
3.87
4.58
Strikes absorbed / min
7.33
52%
Strike defense
33%
0.23
TDs / 15 min
2.00
82%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.88Δ 4.34 — meaningful gap-3.46
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
MarQuel MederosMark Choinski
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
MarQuel Mederos(3 fights)Mark Choinski(1 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+33.6-33.6
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
MarQuel Mederos
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights3
Mark Choinski
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights1