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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Tomorrow
Elo1526
MarQuel Mederos
Elo1542
Mason Jones

MarQuel MederosvsMason JonesUFC Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Saturday, August 22, 2026Sacramento, USA

Fight begins in
Style matchupMarQuel Mederos: Pressure fightervsMason Jones: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

The model's pick for this fight is locked

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Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mason Jones enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Mason Jones has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

MarQuel Mederos
Red Corner
VS
Mason Jones
Blue Corner
+216
(32%)
Vegas Odds
-271
(73%)
1526
Elo
1542
29
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
175.26 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

MarQuel Mederos
oldest →
W
vs Landon Quinones · Feb 24
W
vs Austin Hubbard · Mar 25
W
vs Mark Choinski · Jun 25
D
DECvs Chris Padilla · Apr 26
latest
Mason JonesW3 streak
oldest →
W
vs David Onama · Oct 21
L
vs Ludovit Klein · Jul 22
W
vs Jeremy Stephens · May 25
W
KOvs Bolaji Oki · Sep 25
W
vs Axel Sola · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

MarQuel MederosMetricMason Jones
5.46
Strikes / min
5.98
4.58
Strikes absorbed / min
4.45
52%
Strike defense
50%
0.23
TDs / 15 min
3.48
82%
Takedown defense
73%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.88evenly matched on net striking+1.53
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901508152515431560← oldermost recent →
MarQuel Mederos(4 fights)Mason Jones(6 fights)

Method Projection

Matchup projection based on both fighters' finish patterns and vulnerabilities. These three projected methods total 100%. Most likely: KO / TKO.

KO / TKO100%

Historical win share: Mason Jones earned 20% of wins by KO/TKO.

Submission0%

Limited submission threat from either side.

Decision0%

Both fighters frequently end fights early.

MarQuel Mederos

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights3

Mason Jones

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights6