Lightweight
3 Rounds
Mateusz Gamrot won · Submission R2
Elo1525
Elo1501
Mateusz GamrotvsEsteban RibovicsUFC Prediction Result
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · Saturday, April 11, 2026Miami, USA
Official fight result
Mateusz Gamrot won
Submission · Round 2 · 4:19
Style matchup
Model Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot wins(64.4%)
Scouting Report
- Mateusz Gamrot has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Mateusz Gamrot
Esteban Ribovics
—
Vegas Odds
—
1525
1501
35
30
Southpaw
Orthodox
5'10"
5'10"
177.8 cm
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Mateusz Gamrot
oldest →
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Sep 23
vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Mar 24
vs Dan Hooker · Aug 24
vs Ludovit Klein · May 25
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Oct 25
latestEsteban Ribovics
oldest →
vs Kamuela Kirk · Jul 23
KOvs Terrance McKinney · May 24
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Sep 24
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Mar 25
vs Elves Brener · Aug 25
latestOutput & Defense Comparison
Mateusz GamrotMetricEsteban Ribovics
3.21
Strikes / min
7.27
2.81
Strikes absorbed / min
5.83
60%
Strike defense
54%
5.22
TDs / 15 min
0.35
83%
Takedown defense
66%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Mateusz GamrotEsteban Ribovics
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Mateusz Gamrot
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights12
Esteban Ribovics
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights6