Lightweight
3 Rounds
Chris Duncan won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 2, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupMateusz Rebecki: WrestlervsChris Duncan: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Chris Duncan wins(50.8%)
Actual result: Chris Duncan wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chris Duncan enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mateusz Rebecki (53.5%).
- Chris Duncan has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Mateusz Rebecki
Red Corner
VS
Chris Duncan
Blue Corner
-240
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+198
(34%)
33
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'10"
167.64 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mateusz Rebecki
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Loik Radzhabov · Jun 23W
SUBvs Roosevelt Roberts · Nov 23L
KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 24W
vs Myktybek Orolbai · Oct 24L
vs Ludovit Klein · Oct 25Chris DuncanW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Yanal Ashmouz · Jul 23L
SUBvs Manuel Torres · Feb 24W
SUBvs Bolaji Oki · Sep 24W
SUBvs Jordan Vucenic · Mar 25W
SUBvs Terrance McKinney · Dec 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mateusz RebeckiMetricChris Duncan
4.79
Strikes / min
4.83
4.36
Strikes absorbed / min
4.57
54%
Strike defense
50%
3.05
TDs / 15 min
2.92
53%
Takedown defense
55%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.43evenly matched on net striking+0.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mateusz RebeckiChris Duncan
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mateusz Rebecki(7 fights)Chris Duncan(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+147.0-147.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Mateusz Rebecki
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights7
Chris Duncan
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8