Catch Weight
3 Rounds
Mateusz Rebecki won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, October 26, 2024·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Style matchupMateusz Rebecki: WrestlervsMyktybek Orolbai: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Myktybek Orolbai wins(61.6%)
Actual result: Mateusz Rebecki wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mateusz Rebecki enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Myktybek Orolbai enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mateusz Rebecki (53.5%).
- Myktybek Orolbai has a 20cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Mateusz Rebecki
Red Corner
VS
Myktybek Orolbai
Blue Corner
+215
(32%)
Vegas Odds
-265
(73%)
33
Age
28
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'10"
167.64 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mateusz RebeckiL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Loik Radzhabov · Jun 23W
SUBvs Roosevelt Roberts · Nov 23L
KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 24L
vs Chris Duncan · Aug 25L
vs Ludovit Klein · Oct 25Myktybek OrolbaiW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Uros Medic · Nov 23W
vs Elves Brener · May 24W
SUBvs Tofiq Musayev · Jun 25W
KOvs Jack Hermansson · Nov 25W
vs Chris Curtis · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mateusz RebeckiMetricMyktybek Orolbai
4.79
Strikes / min
2.78
4.36
Strikes absorbed / min
2.70
54%
Strike defense
51%
3.05
TDs / 15 min
8.77
53%
Takedown defense
40%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.43evenly matched on net striking+0.08
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mateusz RebeckiMyktybek Orolbai
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mateusz Rebecki(7 fights)Myktybek Orolbai(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-4.94.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-7.07.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Mateusz Rebecki
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights7
Myktybek Orolbai
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights6