Lightweight
3 Rounds
Mateusz Rebecki won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, November 11, 2023·New York City, New York, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Mateusz Rebecki wins(70.5%)
Actual result: Mateusz Rebecki wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Roosevelt Roberts enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mateusz Rebecki (53.5%).
- Roosevelt Roberts has a 18cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Mateusz Rebecki
Red Corner
VS
Roosevelt Roberts
Blue Corner
-920
(90%)
Vegas Odds
+550
(15%)
33
Age
32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
6'2"
167.64 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mateusz RebeckiL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Loik Radzhabov · Jun 23L
KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 24W
vs Myktybek Orolbai · Oct 24L
vs Chris Duncan · Aug 25L
vs Ludovit Klein · Oct 25Roosevelt RobertsL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Brok Weaver · May 20L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jun 20L
vs Kevin Croom · Sep 20L
KOvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Aug 21L
vs Ludovit Klein · Sep 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mateusz RebeckiMetricRoosevelt Roberts
4.79
Strikes / min
2.84
4.36
Strikes absorbed / min
3.10
54%
Strike defense
52%
3.05
TDs / 15 min
1.18
53%
Takedown defense
50%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.43evenly matched on net striking-0.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mateusz RebeckiRoosevelt Roberts
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mateusz Rebecki(7 fights)Roosevelt Roberts(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+42.6-42.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-672.0672.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.6-1.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Mateusz Rebecki
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights7
Roosevelt Roberts
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights10