Flyweight
3 Rounds
Asu Almabayev won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, October 19, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupMatheus Nicolau: Well-roundedvsAsu Almabayev: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Asu Almabayev wins(54.5%)
Actual result: Asu Almabayev wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matheus Nicolau has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Matheus Nicolau has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Matheus Nicolau
Red Corner
VS
Asu Almabayev
Blue Corner
+205
(33%)
Vegas Odds
-250
(71%)
33
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'4"
167.64 cm
Reach
165.1 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matheus NicolauL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Tim Elliott · Oct 21W
vs David Dvorak · Mar 22W
KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22L
KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23L
KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24Asu AlmabayevW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs CJ Vergara · Mar 24W
vs Jose Johnson · Jun 24L
KOvs Manel Kape · Mar 25W
vs Jose Ochoa · Jul 25W
SUBvs Alex Perez · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matheus NicolauMetricAsu Almabayev
3.31
Strikes / min
2.31
2.98
Strikes absorbed / min
1.99
65%
Strike defense
53%
1.22
TDs / 15 min
4.46
90%
Takedown defense
44%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.33evenly matched on net striking+0.32
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Matheus NicolauAsu Almabayev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)Asu Almabayev(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+3.9-3.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+49.0-49.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.51.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
Matheus Nicolau
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights11
Asu Almabayev
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights7