Flyweight
3 Rounds
Matheus Nicolau won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 26, 2022·Columbus, Ohio, USA, USA
Style matchupMatheus Nicolau: Well-roundedvsDavid Dvorak: Well-rounded
Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.
Model Prediction: Matheus Nicolau wins(68.6%)
Actual result: Matheus Nicolau wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Matheus Nicolau has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Matheus Nicolau
Red Corner
VS
David Dvorak
Blue Corner
+105
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-125
(56%)
33
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'5"
167.64 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matheus NicolauL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Tim Elliott · Oct 21W
KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22L
KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23L
KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24L
vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24David DvorakL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Bruno Silva · Mar 20W
vs Jordan Espinosa · Sep 20W
SUBvs Juancamilo Ronderos · May 21L
vs Manel Kape · Dec 22L
vs Steve Erceg · Jun 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matheus NicolauMetricDavid Dvorak
3.31
Strikes / min
3.48
2.98
Strikes absorbed / min
3.29
65%
Strike defense
59%
1.22
TDs / 15 min
0.58
90%
Takedown defense
70%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.33evenly matched on net striking+0.19
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Matheus NicolauDavid Dvorak
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)David Dvorak(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+12.9-12.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-140.0140.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.4-1.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
Matheus Nicolau
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights11
David Dvorak
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights6