Flyweight
3 Rounds
Matheus Nicolau won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, December 3, 2022·Orlando, Florida, USA, USA
Style matchupMatheus Nicolau: Well-roundedvsMatt Schnell: Pressure fighter
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Matheus Nicolau wins(68.3%)
Actual result: Matheus Nicolau wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Matheus Nicolau has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Matheus Nicolau has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Matt Schnell has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Matheus Nicolau
Red Corner
VS
Matt Schnell
Blue Corner
-390
(80%)
Vegas Odds
+320
(24%)
33
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'8"
167.64 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matheus NicolauL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Tim Elliott · Oct 21W
vs David Dvorak · Mar 22L
KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23L
KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24L
vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24Matt Schnell
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Sumudaerji · Jul 22L
KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24L
SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24W
vs Jimmy Flick · Apr 25L
SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matheus NicolauMetricMatt Schnell
3.31
Strikes / min
4.07
2.98
Strikes absorbed / min
4.11
65%
Strike defense
55%
1.22
TDs / 15 min
0.60
90%
Takedown defense
43%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.33evenly matched on net striking-0.04
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Matheus NicolauMatt Schnell
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)Matt Schnell(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+54.4-54.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+112.0-112.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Matheus Nicolau
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights11
Matt Schnell
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights16