Welterweight
3 Rounds
Brian Foster won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, November 20, 2010·Auburn Hills, Michigan, USA, USA
Style matchupMatt Brown: Submission grapplervsBrian Foster: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Matt Brown wins(58.0%)
Actual result: Brian Foster wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Brian Foster threatens submissions; Matt Brown has lost 42% of fights by sub.
- Brian Foster has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Matt Brown has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Matt Brown has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Matt Brown
Red Corner
VS
Brian Foster
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-130
(57%)
45
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'9"
190.5 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt Brown
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20L
vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21W
KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21L
vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22W
KOvs Court McGee · May 23Brian Foster
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Forrest Petz · Sep 10Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt BrownMetricBrian Foster
3.76
Strikes / min
3.30
2.92
Strikes absorbed / min
1.63
55%
Strike defense
65%
1.68
TDs / 15 min
3.67
63%
Takedown defense
37%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.84evenly matched on net striking+1.67
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Matt BrownBrian Foster
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Brown(10 fights)Brian Foster(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-53.553.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+74.0-74.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-2.02.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.2-1.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Matt Brown
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights25
Brian Foster
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights2