Welterweight
3 Rounds
Bryan Barberena won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 26, 2022·Columbus, Ohio, USA, USA
Style matchupMatt Brown: Submission grapplervsBryan Barberena: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Matt Brown wins(54.9%)
Actual result: Bryan Barberena wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Matt Brown has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Bryan Barberena (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Matt Brown
Red Corner
VS
Bryan Barberena
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
45
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt BrownW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ben Saunders · Dec 19L
KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20L
vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21W
KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21W
KOvs Court McGee · May 23Bryan BarberenaL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22L
SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23L
vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23L
SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt BrownMetricBryan Barberena
3.76
Strikes / min
5.35
2.92
Strikes absorbed / min
4.59
55%
Strike defense
44%
1.68
TDs / 15 min
0.13
63%
Takedown defense
50%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.84evenly matched on net striking+0.76
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Matt BrownBryan Barberena
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Brown(10 fights)Bryan Barberena(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+6.5-6.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+168.0-168.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Matt Brown
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights25
Bryan Barberena
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights19