Welterweight
3 Rounds
Jake Ellenberger won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 30, 2016·Atlanta, Georgia, USA, USA
Style matchupMatt Brown: Submission grapplervsJake Ellenberger: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Matt Brown wins(74.7%)
Actual result: Jake Ellenberger wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Ellenberger enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Matt Brown is a KO finisher (77% of wins). Jake Ellenberger has lost 70% of fights by KO.
- Jake Ellenberger has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Matt Brown has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Matt Brown
Red Corner
VS
Jake Ellenberger
Blue Corner
-310
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+255
(28%)
45
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'9"
190.5 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt Brown
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20L
vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21W
KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21L
vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22W
KOvs Court McGee · May 23Jake EllenbergerL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Tarec Saffiedine · Jan 16L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16L
KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17L
KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt BrownMetricJake Ellenberger
3.76
Strikes / min
2.47
2.92
Strikes absorbed / min
2.83
55%
Strike defense
60%
1.68
TDs / 15 min
2.04
63%
Takedown defense
86%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.84Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap-0.36
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Matt BrownJake Ellenberger
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Brown(10 fights)Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+35.6-35.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-105.0105.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Matt Brown
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights25
Jake Ellenberger
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights19