← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Matt Brown won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1499

Elo1364

Matt BrownvsMike PyleUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · Saturday, August 17, 2013Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Matt Brown won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:29

Style matchupMatt Brown: Submission grapplervsMike Pyle: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Matt Brown wins(56.1%)

Actual result: Matt Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Brown at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Pyle enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Matt Brown is a KO finisher (77% of wins). Mike Pyle has lost 86% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Brown

Red Corner

Mike Pyle

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1499

Elo

1364

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Brown

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20

vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21

KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21

vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22

KOvs Court McGee · May 23

latest

Mike PyleL3 streak

oldest →

vs Colby Covington · May 15

KOvs Sean Spencer · Feb 16

KOvs Alberto Mina · Jul 16

KOvs Alex Garcia · Dec 16

KOvs Zak Ottow · Mar 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt BrownMetricMike Pyle

3.76

Strikes / min

2.74

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

2.84

55%

Strike defense

60%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

1.80

63%

Takedown defense

70%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.84evenly matched on net striking-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt BrownMike Pyle

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Brown(10 fights)Mike Pyle(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +134.4|Blue -134.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt BrownTargetMike Pyle

By target zone

53% acc · 80%

Head

0% acc

50% acc · 10%

Body

100% acc · 10%

Leg

By position

36% acc · 40%

Distance

0% acc

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

83% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Brown rounds

even

Mike Pyle rounds

Round 1Matt Brown edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 18

Sig Strikes

0 / 3

55%

Sig Str %

10 / 18

Total Strikes

0 / 3

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Pyle	0 / 3	0 / 3	0 / 0	0
1	Matt Brown	10 / 18	10 / 18	0 / 0	0

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights25

Mike Pyle

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16