Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Seth Baczynski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Matt Brown is a KO finisher (77% of wins). Seth Baczynski has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Seth Baczynski threatens submissions; Matt Brown has lost 42% of fights by sub.
- Matt Brown has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt Brown
oldest →L
KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20L
vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21W
KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21L
vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22W
KOvs Court McGee · May 23 Seth BaczynskiL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Brian Melancon · Jul 13L
vs Thiago Alves · Apr 14L
KOvs Alan Jouban · Aug 14L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Apr 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt BrownMetricSeth Baczynski
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.84evenly matched on net striking-0.06
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Matt BrownSeth Baczynski
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Brown(10 fights)Seth Baczynski(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +143.9|Blue -143.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +83.0|Blue -83.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Matt BrownTargetSeth Baczynski
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Seth Baczynski edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:30
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:42Control
Round 2Matt Brown edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns1
Control0:26
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
