Welterweight
3 Rounds
Seth Baczynski won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, November 19, 2011·San Jose, California, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Matt Brown wins(66.9%)
Actual result: Seth Baczynski wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Seth Baczynski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Matt Brown is a KO finisher (77% of wins). Seth Baczynski has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Seth Baczynski threatens submissions; Matt Brown has lost 42% of fights by sub.
- Matt Brown has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Matt Brown
Red Corner
VS
Seth Baczynski
Blue Corner
-135
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+125
(44%)
45
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'3"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt Brown
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20L
vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21W
KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21L
vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22W
KOvs Court McGee · May 23Seth BaczynskiL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Brian Melancon · Jul 13W
vs Neil Magny · Nov 13L
vs Thiago Alves · Apr 14L
KOvs Alan Jouban · Aug 14L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Apr 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt BrownMetricSeth Baczynski
3.76
Strikes / min
3.08
2.92
Strikes absorbed / min
3.14
55%
Strike defense
51%
1.68
TDs / 15 min
0.89
63%
Takedown defense
48%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.84evenly matched on net striking-0.06
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Matt BrownSeth Baczynski
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Brown(10 fights)Seth Baczynski(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-33.533.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+83.0-83.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Matt Brown
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights25
Seth Baczynski
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights11