Welterweight
3 Rounds
Matt Brown won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 11, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupMatt Brown: Submission grapplervsTim Means: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Matt Brown wins(50.2%)
Actual result: Matt Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Tale of the Tape
Matt Brown
Red Corner
VS
Tim Means
Blue Corner
-150
(60%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
45
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt Brown
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20L
vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21W
KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21L
vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22W
KOvs Court McGee · May 23Tim MeansL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Max Griffin · Oct 22L
SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23W
KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23L
KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24L
SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt BrownMetricTim Means
3.76
Strikes / min
5.04
2.92
Strikes absorbed / min
3.65
55%
Strike defense
60%
1.68
TDs / 15 min
1.14
63%
Takedown defense
64%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.84evenly matched on net striking+1.39
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Matt BrownTim Means
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Brown(10 fights)Tim Means(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-5.15.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+35.0-35.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Matt Brown
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights25
Tim Means
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights29