Lightweight
3 Rounds
Matt Frevola won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, October 12, 2019·Tampa, Florida, USA, USA
Style matchupMatt Frevola: WrestlervsLuis Pena: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Matt Frevola wins(51.9%)
Actual result: Matt Frevola wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matt Frevola enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Luis Pena (53.5%).
- Luis Pena has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Matt Frevola
Red Corner
VS
Luis Pena
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
35
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
6'3"
180.34 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt FrevolaL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Nov 22W
KOvs Drew Dober · May 23L
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 23L
KOvs Fares Ziam · Sep 24L
vs Kyle Nelson · Oct 25Luis Pena
oldest →latest
W
vs Steven Peterson · Mar 19W
KOvs Matt Wiman · Jun 19W
vs Steve Garcia · Feb 20L
SUBvs Khama Worthy · Jun 20W
vs Alexander Munoz · Apr 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt FrevolaMetricLuis Pena
3.30
Strikes / min
3.66
3.76
Strikes absorbed / min
3.12
56%
Strike defense
51%
2.34
TDs / 15 min
1.17
40%
Takedown defense
48%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Matt FrevolaLuis Pena
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Frevola(10 fights)Luis Pena(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-33.433.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+70.0-70.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Matt Frevola
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10
Luis Pena
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8