Lightweight
3 Rounds
Terrance McKinney won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, June 12, 2021·Glendale, Arizona, USA, USA
Style matchupMatt Frevola: WrestlervsTerrance McKinney: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Terrance McKinney wins(51.6%)
Actual result: Terrance McKinney wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matt Frevola enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Matt Frevola is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Terrance McKinney has lost 60% of fights by KO.
- Terrance McKinney is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Matt Frevola has lost 60% of fights by KO.
- Matt Frevola has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Terrance McKinney has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Terrance McKinney (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Matt Frevola
Red Corner
VS
Terrance McKinney
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
35
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'9"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt FrevolaL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Nov 22W
KOvs Drew Dober · May 23L
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 23L
KOvs Fares Ziam · Sep 24L
vs Kyle Nelson · Oct 25Terrance McKinney
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Esteban Ribovics · May 24W
KOvs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 25W
SUBvs Viacheslav Borshchev · Jun 25L
SUBvs Chris Duncan · Dec 25W
KOvs Kyle Nelson · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt FrevolaMetricTerrance McKinney
3.30
Strikes / min
6.53
3.76
Strikes absorbed / min
3.45
56%
Strike defense
43%
2.34
TDs / 15 min
3.31
40%
Takedown defense
72%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
2.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.46Δ 3.54 — meaningful gap+3.08
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Matt FrevolaTerrance McKinney
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Frevola(10 fights)Terrance McKinney(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+23.2-23.2
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.049.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.649.6
Matt Frevola
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10
Terrance McKinney
StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights13