Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Alexander Gustafsson won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, August 6, 2011·Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA, USA
Style matchupMatt Hamill: WrestlervsAlexander Gustafsson: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Matt Hamill wins(54.1%)
Actual result: Alexander Gustafsson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Matt Hamill has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Matt Hamill
Red Corner
VS
Alexander Gustafsson
Blue Corner
+140
(42%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
49
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'5"
193.04 cm
Reach
200.66 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt Hamill
oldest →latest
W
vs Keith Jardine · Jun 10W
vs Tito Ortiz · Oct 10L
vs Rampage Jackson · May 11W
vs Roger Hollett · Sep 12L
vs Thiago Silva · Oct 13Alexander GustafssonL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17L
KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18L
SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19L
SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20L
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt HamillMetricAlexander Gustafsson
3.69
Strikes / min
4.03
3.80
Strikes absorbed / min
3.53
61%
Strike defense
51%
3.00
TDs / 15 min
1.53
91%
Takedown defense
83%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.11evenly matched on net striking+0.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Matt HamillAlexander Gustafsson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Hamill(6 fights)Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-3.63.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-91.091.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.5-1.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Matt Hamill
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights6
Alexander Gustafsson
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights17