Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Matt Hamill has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt Hamill
oldest →W
vs Keith Jardine · Jun 10L
DECvs Rampage Jackson · May 11W
vs Roger Hollett · Sep 12L
vs Thiago Silva · Oct 13 Alexander GustafssonL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17L
SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19L
SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20L
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt HamillMetricAlexander Gustafsson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.11evenly matched on net striking+0.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Matt HamillAlexander Gustafsson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Hamill(6 fights)Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +59.8|Blue -59.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -91.0|Blue +91.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Matt HamillTargetAlexander Gustafsson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Alexander Gustafsson rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Alexander Gustafsson edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:21Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
