Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Matt Hamill won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 22, 2012·Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Canada
Model Prediction: Matt Hamill wins(69.0%)
Actual result: Matt Hamill wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matt Hamill enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Matt Hamill has 27pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Matt Hamill has 61pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Matt Hamill has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Matt Hamill
Red Corner
VS
Roger Hollett
Blue Corner
-340
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+310
(24%)
49
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'11"
193.04 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt HamillL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Keith Jardine · Jun 10W
vs Tito Ortiz · Oct 10L
vs Rampage Jackson · May 11L
KOvs Alexander Gustafsson · Aug 11L
vs Thiago Silva · Oct 13Roger Hollett
oldest →latest
L
vs Fabio Maldonado · May 13Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt HamillMetricRoger Hollett
3.69
Strikes / min
1.83
3.80
Strikes absorbed / min
6.47
61%
Strike defense
34%
3.00
TDs / 15 min
1.00
91%
Takedown defense
30%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.11Δ 4.53 — meaningful gap-4.64
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Matt HamillRoger Hollett
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Hamill(6 fights)Roger Hollett(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-2.02.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-48.048.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.749.7
Matt Hamill
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights6
Roger Hollett
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach—
Fights2