Welterweight
3 Rounds
BJ Penn won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, November 20, 2010·Auburn Hills, Michigan, USA, USA
Style matchupMatt Hughes: WrestlervsBJ Penn: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: BJ Penn wins(51.1%)
Actual result: BJ Penn wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- BJ Penn enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- BJ Penn is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Matt Hughes has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- BJ Penn has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Matt Hughes (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Matt Hughes
Red Corner
VS
BJ Penn
Blue Corner
+195
(34%)
Vegas Odds
-215
(68%)
52
Age
47
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt Hughes
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Renzo Gracie · Apr 10W
SUBvs Ricardo Almeida · Aug 10L
KOvs Josh Koscheck · Sep 11BJ PennL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Frankie Edgar · Jul 14L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jan 17L
vs Dennis Siver · Jun 17L
SUBvs Ryan Hall · Dec 18L
vs Clay Guida · May 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt HughesMetricBJ Penn
2.14
Strikes / min
2.76
1.36
Strikes absorbed / min
3.20
53%
Strike defense
56%
2.95
TDs / 15 min
1.19
35%
Takedown defense
74%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.78Δ 1.22 — meaningful gap-0.44
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Matt HughesBJ Penn
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Hughes(4 fights)BJ Penn(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+72.0-72.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+21.0-21.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+2.0-2.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Matt Hughes
StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4
BJ Penn
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10