Welterweight
3 Rounds
Josh Koscheck won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 24, 2011·Denver, Colorado, USA, USA
Style matchupMatt Hughes: WrestlervsJosh Koscheck: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Matt Hughes wins(63.2%)
Actual result: Josh Koscheck wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Josh Koscheck enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Matt Hughes threatens submissions; Josh Koscheck has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Josh Koscheck has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Josh Koscheck has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Matt Hughes (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Matt Hughes
Red Corner
VS
Josh Koscheck
Blue Corner
+350
(22%)
Vegas Odds
-395
(80%)
52
Age
48
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt Hughes
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Renzo Gracie · Apr 10W
SUBvs Ricardo Almeida · Aug 10L
KOvs BJ Penn · Nov 10Josh KoscheckL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Johny Hendricks · May 12L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Feb 13L
KOvs Tyron Woodley · Nov 13L
SUBvs Jake Ellenberger · Feb 15L
SUBvs Erick Silva · Mar 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt HughesMetricJosh Koscheck
2.14
Strikes / min
1.79
1.36
Strikes absorbed / min
2.27
53%
Strike defense
63%
2.95
TDs / 15 min
2.46
35%
Takedown defense
64%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.78Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap-0.48
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Matt HughesJosh Koscheck
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Hughes(4 fights)Josh Koscheck(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+14.7-14.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+21.0-21.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Matt Hughes
StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4
Josh Koscheck
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights9