Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Matt Mitrione won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, January 22, 2011·Killeen, Texas, USA, USA
Style matchupMatt Mitrione: Elusive strikervsTim Hague: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.
Model Prediction: Matt Mitrione wins(59.6%)
Actual result: Matt Mitrione wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matt Mitrione is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Tim Hague has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Matt Mitrione has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Tim Hague has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Matt Mitrione (52.9%).
- Matt Mitrione has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Matt Mitrione
Red Corner
VS
Tim Hague
Blue Corner
-250
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+230
(30%)
47
Age
43
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'4"
208.28 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt MitrioneL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Shawn Jordan · Mar 14W
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Sep 14W
KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Dec 14L
SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jun 15L
KOvs Travis Browne · Jan 16Tim Hague
oldest →latest
L
vs Joey Beltran · May 10Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt MitrioneMetricTim Hague
3.55
Strikes / min
2.79
2.79
Strikes absorbed / min
4.14
64%
Strike defense
46%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.72
55%
Takedown defense
85%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.76Δ 2.11 — meaningful gap-1.35
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Matt MitrioneTim Hague
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Mitrione(10 fights)Tim Hague(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+40.5-40.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-140.0140.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+2.0-2.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Matt Mitrione
StanceSwitch
Height75.0"
Reach82.0"
Fights13
Tim Hague
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights2