Flyweight
3 Rounds
Joseph Morales won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, November 8, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupMatt Schnell: Pressure fightervsJoseph Morales: Submission grappler
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Matt Schnell wins(56.3%)
Actual result: Joseph Morales wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joseph Morales threatens submissions; Matt Schnell has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Matt Schnell has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Joseph Morales (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Matt Schnell
Red Corner
VS
Joseph Morales
Blue Corner
+380
(21%)
Vegas Odds
-490
(83%)
36
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'8"
Height
5'6"
177.8 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt Schnell
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Sumudaerji · Jul 22L
KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Dec 22L
KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24L
SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24W
vs Jimmy Flick · Apr 25Joseph Morales
oldest →latest
W
vs Roberto Sanchez · Aug 17L
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Feb 18L
vs Eric Shelton · Nov 18W
SUBvs Alibi Idiris · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt SchnellMetricJoseph Morales
4.07
Strikes / min
2.00
4.11
Strikes absorbed / min
2.05
55%
Strike defense
57%
0.60
TDs / 15 min
1.14
43%
Takedown defense
26%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
3.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.04evenly matched on net striking-0.05
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Matt SchnellJoseph Morales
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Schnell(10 fights)Joseph Morales(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-7.47.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+112.0-112.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Matt Schnell
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights16
Joseph Morales
StanceSwitch
Height66.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights5