Flyweight
3 Rounds
Steve Erceg won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, March 2, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupMatt Schnell: Pressure fightervsSteve Erceg: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Steve Erceg wins(51.7%)
Actual result: Steve Erceg wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Steve Erceg has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Matt Schnell
Red Corner
VS
Steve Erceg
Blue Corner
+370
(21%)
Vegas Odds
-485
(83%)
36
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt Schnell
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Sumudaerji · Jul 22L
KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Dec 22L
SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24W
vs Jimmy Flick · Apr 25L
SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25Steve Erceg
oldest →latest
W
vs Alessandro Costa · Nov 23L
vs Alexandre Pantoja · May 24L
KOvs Kai Kara-France · Aug 24L
vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 25W
vs Ode Osbourne · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt SchnellMetricSteve Erceg
4.07
Strikes / min
4.64
4.11
Strikes absorbed / min
4.07
55%
Strike defense
55%
0.60
TDs / 15 min
1.13
43%
Takedown defense
67%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.04evenly matched on net striking+0.57
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Matt SchnellSteve Erceg
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Schnell(10 fights)Steve Erceg(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-26.326.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+343.0-343.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.31.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Matt Schnell
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights16
Steve Erceg
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights7