Welterweight
3 Rounds
Chris Lytle won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 25, 2010·Indianapolis, Indiana, USA, USA
Style matchupMatt Serra: WrestlervsChris Lytle: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Chris Lytle wins(54.8%)
Actual result: Chris Lytle wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chris Lytle has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Chris Lytle has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Matt Serra
Red Corner
VS
Chris Lytle
Blue Corner
+125
(44%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
51
Age
51
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'11"
172.72 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt SerraNo prior UFC fights on record.
Chris Lytle
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Matt Brown · Jul 10L
vs Brian Ebersole · Feb 11W
SUBvs Dan Hardy · Aug 11Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt SerraMetricChris Lytle
1.98
Strikes / min
3.76
2.64
Strikes absorbed / min
3.03
46%
Strike defense
58%
2.05
TDs / 15 min
0.70
38%
Takedown defense
55%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
2.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.66Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+0.73
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Matt SerraChris Lytle
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Serra(1 fights)Chris Lytle(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-17.517.5
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+48.0-48.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.6-49.6
Matt Serra
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights1
Chris Lytle
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights4