Welterweight
3 Rounds
Matthew Semelsberger won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 12, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Matthew Semelsberger wins(55.3%)
Actual result: Matthew Semelsberger wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Matthew Semelsberger has a 20cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Matthew Semelsberger
Red Corner
VS
AJ Fletcher
Blue Corner
-195
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+165
(38%)
33
Age
29
Switch
Stance
Switch
6'1"
Height
5'10"
190.5 cm
Reach
170.18 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matthew SemelsbergerL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jake Matthews · Dec 22L
vs Jeremiah Wells · Apr 23L
KOvs Uros Medic · Jul 23L
vs Preston Parsons · Jan 24L
KOvs Charles Radtke · Nov 24AJ Fletcher
oldest →latest
L
vs Ange Loosa · Aug 22W
SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Feb 23L
SUBvs Bryan Battle · Sep 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matthew SemelsbergerMetricAJ Fletcher
3.77
Strikes / min
3.36
4.24
Strikes absorbed / min
4.61
54%
Strike defense
46%
1.01
TDs / 15 min
1.54
45%
Takedown defense
33%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.47evenly matched on net striking-1.25
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Matthew SemelsbergerAJ Fletcher
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matthew Semelsberger(10 fights)AJ Fletcher(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+33.3-33.3
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
Matthew Semelsberger
StanceSwitch
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights11
AJ Fletcher
StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights4