Welterweight
3 Rounds
Matthew Semelsberger won · KO/TKO
UFC Event·Saturday, March 13, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Jason Witt wins(55.8%)
Actual result: Matthew Semelsberger wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Jason Witt has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Matthew Semelsberger (52.9%).
- Matthew Semelsberger has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Matthew Semelsberger
Red Corner
VS
Jason Witt
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
33
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'10"
190.5 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matthew SemelsbergerL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jake Matthews · Dec 22L
vs Jeremiah Wells · Apr 23L
KOvs Uros Medic · Jul 23L
vs Preston Parsons · Jan 24L
KOvs Charles Radtke · Nov 24Jason WittL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Takashi Sato · Jun 20W
SUBvs Cole Williams · Oct 20W
vs Bryan Barberena · Jul 21L
KOvs Phil Rowe · Feb 22L
KOvs Josh Quinlan · Aug 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matthew SemelsbergerMetricJason Witt
3.77
Strikes / min
2.15
4.24
Strikes absorbed / min
2.54
54%
Strike defense
52%
1.01
TDs / 15 min
6.90
45%
Takedown defense
100%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.47evenly matched on net striking-0.39
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Matthew SemelsbergerJason Witt
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matthew Semelsberger(10 fights)Jason Witt(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+18.3-18.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+70.0-70.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Matthew Semelsberger
StanceSwitch
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights11
Jason Witt
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights6