Welterweight
3 Rounds
Matthew Semelsberger won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 25, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Matthew Semelsberger wins(67.6%)
Actual result: Matthew Semelsberger wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Matthew Semelsberger has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Matthew Semelsberger has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Matthew Semelsberger (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Matthew Semelsberger
Red Corner
VS
Martin Sano
Blue Corner
-525
(84%)
Vegas Odds
+385
(21%)
33
Age
34
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'11"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matthew SemelsbergerL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jake Matthews · Dec 22L
vs Jeremiah Wells · Apr 23L
KOvs Uros Medic · Jul 23L
vs Preston Parsons · Jan 24L
KOvs Charles Radtke · Nov 24Martin SanoNo prior UFC fights on record.
Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matthew SemelsbergerMetricMartin Sano
3.77
Strikes / min
4.00
4.24
Strikes absorbed / min
12.00
54%
Strike defense
40%
1.01
TDs / 15 min
0.00
45%
Takedown defense
0%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.47Δ 7.53 — meaningful gap-8.00
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Matthew SemelsbergerMartin Sano
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matthew Semelsberger(10 fights)Martin Sano(1 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+15.7-15.7
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
Matthew Semelsberger
StanceSwitch
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights11
Martin Sano
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights1