Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Alexander Gustafsson won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 8, 2012·Seattle, Washington, USA, USA
Style matchupMauricio Rua: WrestlervsAlexander Gustafsson: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Mauricio Rua wins(50.9%)
Actual result: Alexander Gustafsson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mauricio Rua enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Alexander Gustafsson has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Mauricio Rua
Red Corner
VS
Alexander Gustafsson
Blue Corner
+240
(29%)
Vegas Odds
-280
(74%)
44
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'5"
193.04 cm
Reach
200.66 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mauricio RuaL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Tyson Pedro · Dec 18W
vs Rogerio Nogueira · Jul 20L
KOvs Paul Craig · Nov 20L
vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 22L
KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 23Alexander GustafssonL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17L
KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18L
SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19L
SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20L
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mauricio RuaMetricAlexander Gustafsson
3.57
Strikes / min
4.03
2.79
Strikes absorbed / min
3.53
54%
Strike defense
51%
2.01
TDs / 15 min
1.53
49%
Takedown defense
83%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.78evenly matched on net striking+0.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mauricio RuaAlexander Gustafsson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mauricio Rua(10 fights)Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-45.745.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-112.0112.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.9-1.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Mauricio Rua
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights19
Alexander Gustafsson
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights17