Light Heavyweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Jon Jones won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 19, 2011·Newark, New Jersey, USA, USA
Style matchupMauricio Rua: WrestlervsJon Jones: Elusive striker
The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.
Model Prediction: Jon Jones wins(59.5%)
Actual result: Jon Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mauricio Rua enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Jon Jones has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Jon Jones has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Jon Jones has a 20cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Mauricio Rua
Red Corner
VS
Jon Jones
Blue Corner
+195
(34%)
Vegas Odds
-215
(68%)
44
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'4"
193.04 cm
Reach
213.36 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mauricio RuaL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Tyson Pedro · Dec 18W
vs Rogerio Nogueira · Jul 20L
KOvs Paul Craig · Nov 20L
vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 22L
KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 23Jon JonesW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Anthony Smith · Mar 19W
vs Thiago Santos · Jul 19W
vs Dominick Reyes · Feb 20W
SUBvs Ciryl Gane · Mar 23W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Nov 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mauricio RuaMetricJon Jones
3.57
Strikes / min
4.38
2.79
Strikes absorbed / min
2.24
54%
Strike defense
64%
2.01
TDs / 15 min
1.89
49%
Takedown defense
95%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.78Δ 1.36 — meaningful gap+2.14
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mauricio RuaJon Jones
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mauricio Rua(10 fights)Jon Jones(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-31.331.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+273.0-273.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Mauricio Rua
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights19
Jon Jones
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights19