Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Paul Craig won · KO/TKO
UFC Event·Saturday, November 21, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupMauricio Rua: WrestlervsPaul Craig: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Mauricio Rua wins(53.5%)
Actual result: Paul Craig wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Mauricio Rua is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Paul Craig has lost 55% of fights by KO.
- Mauricio Rua has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Mauricio Rua
Red Corner
VS
Paul Craig
Blue Corner
+150
(40%)
Vegas Odds
-190
(66%)
44
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'3"
193.04 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mauricio RuaL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Anthony Smith · Jul 18W
KOvs Tyson Pedro · Dec 18W
vs Rogerio Nogueira · Jul 20L
vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 22L
KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 23Paul CraigL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23L
KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24L
vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24L
vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25L
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mauricio RuaMetricPaul Craig
3.57
Strikes / min
2.50
2.79
Strikes absorbed / min
3.04
54%
Strike defense
43%
2.01
TDs / 15 min
1.43
49%
Takedown defense
35%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.78Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap-0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mauricio RuaPaul Craig
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mauricio Rua(10 fights)Paul Craig(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+24.5-24.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.4-1.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Mauricio Rua
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights19
Paul Craig
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights20